Think Like a Futurist: How Dator's Law Can Help You Plan for an Uncertain Tomorrow

In a world of constant change, organizations often find themselves focused on immediate challenges rather than preparing for what lies ahead.

However, incorporating futurist thinking into your planning process can transform how your organization navigates uncertainty and creates lasting impact. One particularly useful concept from the field of futures studies is "Dator's Law," a powerful framework that can help Boards and leaders expand their thinking about what's possible.

What is Dator's Law?

Named after Jim Dator, a pioneering futurist and former professor at the University of Hawaii, Dator's Law states, "Any useful idea about the future should appear ridiculous."

At first glance, this might seem counterintuitive. Shouldn't good planning be based on practical, realistic ideas?

What Dator recognized is that truly transformative changes often seem impossible or absurd before they happen. Think about how concepts like the Internet, smartphones, or remote work might have sounded to people several decades ago. By embracing seemingly "ridiculous" ideas, organizations open themselves to possibilities that extend beyond current assumptions and limitations.

All too often, we plan using only familiar trends and known solutions. This approach can lead to continuing programs that may become obsolete, missing emerging opportunities, or even being unprepared for disruptive changes affecting your business.

But where do you start?

Futurist thinking isn't about predicting a single definitive future. Instead, it's about exploring multiple possible futures to make more resilient plans. If you’re new to the concept, we often recommend beginning with the four futures that Dator crafted:

1. Continuation: What if current trends continue as expected?

2. Collapse: What if systems break down or face major challenges?

3. Discipline: What if we return to traditional values or simplified approaches?

4. Transformation: What if revolutionary technologies or social changes create entirely new possibilities?

At your next leadership meeting or Board retreat, consider dedicating time to exploring each of these scenarios for your organization's mission area. This exercise expands thinking beyond the default "continuation" scenario that dominates most planning.

When you are exploring these scenarios, remember Dator’s Law. The more far-fetched an idea is, the better. Change often comes from unexpected places.

After spending time with your team exploring multiple futures, don't simply file away these insights for a distant tomorrow. Instead, begin looking for signs or signals that some of these wild futures may not be so far-fetched after all. A simple Google search is all you need. I guarantee that within minutes, you will come to find that many of your perceived-outlandish ideas are in fact, already becoming a reality in some other sector, country, or niche area of the world.

From there, you can begin to connect these various future scenarios to present-day decisions. While there’s a whole host of exercises we like to do with clients, a few prompts to get you started include:

• Are there technical skills or staff capabilities that you can invest in now that would serve your organization regardless of which future materialized?

• If this future arrives faster than anticipated, what capabilities would you wish your team had started building today? Which of these could you begin developing now with minimal risk?

• What partnerships or relationships should we be cultivating now that would position us advantageously in this future?

Remember, the goal isn't just to imagine interesting futures but to make better decisions today. And by thinking creatively and even a bit wildly, you can begin to uncover some of the unknown trends and opportunities that may exist for your organization.