Embracing Volatility and Uncertainty

The art of organizational leadership has never been easy, but something fundamental has shifted in recent months. It's not just the pace of change – it's the nature of change itself. 

In our conversations with leaders from the nonprofit to the corporate sectors, we keep hearing the same thing recently – “how do we make plans when there is so much uncertainty about what will happen next week, or even the next day?”

Right now, we’re witnessing a perfect storm where every aspect of VUCA is magnified.

What is VUCA you ask? If you’re new to the concept, VUCA or Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity is a framework first originated by the U.S. military as a way to understand and describe situations where change happens rapidly and unpredictably (Volatility), the future is hard to forecast (Uncertainty), many different factors interact with each other (Complexity), and it's difficult to get clear answers or understanding (Ambiguity). And its resonance in today’s environment is undeniable.

The framework's origins seem particularly apt as organizations wage their own battles for stability and impact in an increasingly unpredictable environment.

Consider volatility. In just the past month, organizations are facing not just the usual market fluctuations but dramatic swings in regulatory interpretation and enforcement. What was standard practice yesterday might be questioned today and shift tomorrow. This volatility extends beyond mere policy changes to fundamental questions about how organizations operate and govern themselves.

The uncertainty piece hits particularly close to home. We recently facilitated a conversation with a coalition that is trying to plan a three-year strategy while facing shifting guidelines, evolving grant requirements, and unclear funding sources. In a way, it’s like building a house on quicksand. This uncertainty isn't just about what might change – it's about the very nature of change itself.

Complexity goes beyond the usual organizational challenges. We're seeing intricate webs of interdependence where explicit decisions or even the rumor of a future change creates unexpected ripples across entire organizational ecosystems.

And then there's ambiguity – perhaps the most challenging aspect currently. When the rules of the game aren't just changing but becoming increasingly open to interpretation, how do organizations chart a clear path forward? The mixed signals are creating a fog through which leaders must navigate their organizations.

But here's the thing about VUCA – it's not just a framework for describing our problems. It's a tool for developing solutions. 

The organizations we've seen thrive in this environment aren't just surviving the chaos; they're building new capabilities that will serve them through this moment, and long into the future.

The most successful approaches we've witnessed start with vision. In a volatile environment, organizations need a clear sense of purpose that transcends temporary turbulence and a set of core principles that guide decision-making even when the path ahead is unclear.

But that’s only the beginning. Right now, the most effective organizations are investing heavily in signal watching and scenario planning. For many, this scenario planning started some time ago but for others, they are just now realizing how important this can be. And a key detail is that we are in a world that requires a different style of scenario planning. Instead of exclusively trying to predict specific outcomes, we help organizations focus on building the capability to respond quickly to whatever emerges.

If you had to achieve your mission with half your current resources, what would you absolutely keep doing? What existing partnerships could you activate tomorrow if your main program or service was put in jeopardy? Which 'emergency' response from a past crisis should become a permanent way of operating from now on? Where can you build slack that can help you absorb and mitigate future shifts?

These are the types of questions you should be asking yourself because those organizations that are the best at processing and responding to new events, are best positioned to navigate through the uncertainty.

The path forward isn't about waiting for stability to return. Rather than being paralyzed by unpredictability, forward-thinking organizations are using this period to build stronger, more adaptable structures and processes.

Looking ahead, it's clear that VUCA conditions aren't going away. If anything, they're likely to intensify as a new paradigm evolves. The VUCA framework reminds us that our current challenges, while significant, aren't unique. Military strategists have been dealing with similar conditions for decades. So have organizations, but perhaps less acutely. What's new is the extent to which these conditions now apply to almost every organization, regardless of sector or size.

As we navigate through this period of extreme uncertainty, the VUCA framework offers more than just a description of our challenges – it provides a roadmap for building more resilient, adaptive, and successful organizations.